The Misanthropic Principle » carbon dioxide

Good Thing Global Warming is a Hoax …

Misanthropic Scott — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:58:13 +0000

… otherwise, the few hundred peer reviewed articles summarized and referenced in this pre-Copenhagen summary showing, once again, that climate change is worse than the uber-conservative IPCC has been estimating might really scare me. I mean, what if it were really true that these few hundred recent peer-reviewed articles show that:

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40 percent higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25 percent probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40 percent greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80 percent above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets

Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental icesheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society—with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases—needs to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

Boy … if there really were several hundred recent peer-reviewed articles to show these things, we’d really be toast.

Oh wait … there are. You’ve just read the executive summary. Don’t believe it? Download the full report. After that, feel free to wade through the hundreds of articles in the references section, downloading whichever ones you question and reading them in their entirety.

Here’s that URL again in case you missed it up top.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report

Footnote: Do you think that the leaked emails prove anything about these few hundred articles? Well, let’s look carefully at what even the very few selected emails quoted out of context by a bunch of literal thieves with an agenda show. Nothing in those emails indicates a global conspiracy of climate scientists to get rich and take over the world.

Read these two articles on the subject. I think they make clear what the emails do and more importantly do not show.

The CRU hack
The CRU hack: Context

Time Lapse Ice Loss Video

Misanthropic Scott — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:38:28 +0000

This video makes a great visual demonstration of climate change by actually showing ice loss over time.

more about "Time Lapse Ice Loss Video", posted with vodpod

NOAA: Climate Change Largely Irreversible

Misanthropic Scott — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:10:41 +0000

A new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states that we’ve already locked in more than 1,000 years of climate change, even if we completely stop emitting CO₂ immediately. Note that while the study below indicates that we have already guaranteed from 1.3 – 3.2 feet of sea level rise over the next 1,000 years, that small but significant amount does not even take into account any melting from glaciers.

New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible

So, after reading that article, consider this as a companion article discussing sea level rise from glacial melt water. Instead of talking about 1.3 – 3.2 feet, this study shows up to 4 meters by the end of the century, not 1,000 years, but merely 100 years. Your grandchildren may live to see that. Note that this is over 13 feet of sea level rise by the end of the century for those who need to think in feet.

Sea levels could rise 4m this century: climate expert

Need a visual for this? Zoom in to various places around the world on this link. It’s preset for most of the world and a 4 meter rise, to show the effects of this prediction.

Map of Sea Level Rise

I should point out that there is one significant point I would make about this. Even if this is correct and we are locked into a millennium of warming, the magnitude of that warming will still be affected by the actions we take. We must do everything in our power to combat climate change with extreme urgency to stave off the worst of the effects. We must also take action to mitigate the damage that will be caused by the climate change that is already locked in.

This post is NOT intended to cause inaction through hopelessness. Rather, it is intended to show the extreme urgency of our situation and to inform people of the worsening projections of the scientific community.

EPA Creates Environmental Fugitives Most Wanted List

Misanthropic Scott — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:40:01 +0000

Environmental fugitives get own most-wanted list

In my opinion, the number one fugitive on the list should be Stephen L. Johnson. The man has done irreparable harm to the environment in his tenure as EPA Administrator. He has flatly refused to regulate carbon dioxide emissions in any way despite being ordered by the United States Supreme Court to do so.

As of this date, the EPA has still done nothing regarding CO2 emissions regulations or implemented any form of a carbon tax.

I have written Mr. Johnson several nastygrams on the subject including getting personal by pointing out that his five grandchildren will one day curse his memory for destroying their planet. To call this man is a major league bucket of scum would be to insult perfectly good and decent pond scum.

Thanks Jan for the article.

The Most Important Number on Earth

Misanthropic Scott — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:38:17 +0000

It seems that the number 350, a rather boring looking number, may be even more important than Pi and Phi. It probably isn’t more important in the universe than the Hubble Constant and other important universal constants. However, to life evolved for the current climate range on Earth, 350 may just turn out even more important than all the rest, at least for our island Earth.

Why 350?

Because, 350 parts per million is the number below which we must stabilize the greenhouse gases on the planet in terms of the equivalent quantity of carbon dioxide. Any more and we will disrupt the ecosystem on which humanity and many other organisms depend for our very lives.

The problems are, at least:

1) We’re already above that number. (Current consensus is about 385 ppm, though at least one scientist puts our current number at over 450 ppm.)
2) Even Kyoto and the goals of other nations are way above 350 ppm.
3) Our best efforts to date, even with the best of intentions, have done nothing whatsoever to actually reduce the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
4) Our planet’s ecology will not care one iota for our efforts. It being an inanimate system will care only for results. This was pointed out to me at a lecture by Paul R Ehrlich, coauthor of The Dominant Animal.

Here’s an excellent article from Mother Jones detailing the reason 350 is the most important number and what must be done. It is also the impetus for this blog post.

The Most Important Number on Earth

When you’re done with that, you will likely want to do something. Here’s an organization designed to get the word (or more accurately, the number) out to the public and hopefully influence politicians to take real and decisive action.

350.org: Global Warming. Global Action. Global Future.

Where the 350 number comes from:

Climate Target Not Radical Enough — Popular press article paraphrasing the study.

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? — The peer reviewed article, a 15 page PDF.

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? (Supporting Data) — This is the supporting data to the peer reviewed article, a 21 page PDF.

An article with a claim that the current number is actually over 450:

Greenhouse gas levels ‘far worse than predicted’

CO2: Even Our Lowest Targets Are TOO HIGH!!

Misanthropic Scott — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 00:34:50 +0000

Well, if this new report is correct, and it likely is, then even the lowest targets set by any of the governments of the world, are a recipe for disaster. According to this peer reviewed report, the target set by the European Union, 550 parts per million is not only the strictest and lowest global CO2 target anyone is trying to reach, it’s way too high.

Climate Target Not Radical Enough — Popular press article paraphrasing the study.

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? — The peer reviewed article, a 15 page PDF.

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? (Supporting Data) — This is the supporting data to the peer reviewed article, a 21 page PDF.

Apparently we have dramatically underestimated the level of the problem and the limits we must set. According to this new study, we need to set our targets at just 350 parts per million of CO2. The mainstream accepted number that we’re at today? 385 parts per million.

So, of course, now would be a perfect time for a U.S. senator to remove his revenue neutral carbon tax bill from the table. Obviously, a revenue neutral carbon tax would harm the U.S. economy way too much during the current economic recession, depression, or whatever we’re calling it. Clearly a tax that does not cost the American people a cent overall because it simply reduces taxes elsewhere would be way too hard for the U.S. economy to sustain. (Translation: Americans hear the word tax and get all nervous. Too bad hearing “increase national debt by trillions” doesn’t have the same effect or we might have avoided an oil war.)

In case anyone has not read my blog before and thinks that there may be a note of sarcasm in the prior paragraph, I was hoping it would qualify as an entire symphony of it.

Dingell Withdraws Idea of a Carbon Tax

No Tax Increase — Read this one for an explanation of how a carbon tax would not increase taxes overall.